World Environment Day Temperatures set to rise, water bodies to shrink
BHOPAL: Upper lake or "Bada Taal", the life line of the state capital, will hardly reach its full tank level by 2050 while the much expected monsoon arrival in Madhya Pradesh would be delayed by almost a month, to July mid, if the draft report on 'State Action Plan on Climate Change' is to be believed.
The draft report, a first of its kind task to understand the possible effect climate change, prepared by the climate change cell of environment planning and coordination organisation (EPCO) suggests that overexploitation of natural resources coupled with increased dependence on fossil fuels and demand for power the maximum temperature in the state would rise by an average of 2 degrees Celsius affecting the human beings, livestock and forests.
With a rise in maximum temperature by 2030, evapotranspiration is projected to increase by 22% thus speeding up the pace of drying of water bodies throughout the state. There would be more heat waves, harsh winters and other weather patterns that would have an adverse effect on health and economic indicators as well.
The reports points out that in MP the total number of heat wave deaths between 1968 to 1977 was four and between 1978 to 1999 they increased to 158. The past decade 2001-2010 has been the warmest decade on record.
"We are faced with a huge problem here, but the bigger challenge is to make the people aware about the magnitude of the climate change problem," said Manohar Dubey, executive director EPCO.
The report analyzed integrating climate change concerns in the respective planning included agriculture, horticulture, animal husbandry, fisheries, water, forest and biodiversity, rural development, energy, renewable energy, health, urban habitat and transport, industries and environment. It calls for a Rs 4,653 crore budget allocation to the different government departments in a bid to coordinate and prepare measures to minimize the impact of climate change.
A government of India committee has also gone through the report and recommended that the planning commission take necessary action and arrange for financial assistance.
Rising climate variability will lead to an increase in demand of electricity, thus putting more pressure on the existing resources and impact economic growth.
Already, green house emission (GHC) contributed by the energy sector is 65% followed by transport sector at 14%. The reports points out renewable energy sources are a mere 2.95% of total installed energy capacity of state.
Competition for water, land and energy access and usage would increase cost of production. Highly vulnerable industries owing to climate change would be
Agro based industries, paper industries, small and medium industries (like fisheries, wood based industries, handloom industries) are vulnerable to climate change while the real estate sector would be hit hard, suggest the report.
As climate change would increase the pressure on existing resources, the report estimates during the short-term period of 2030s, out of the 4426 forested grids in Madhya Pradesh, 1000 or 23% will be impacted by climate change. Alarmingly the forested grids projected to be impacted by 2080s would be about 48% or 2131 grids.
The impact on animals would be significant too, making many to be classified as rare, endangered and threatened or RET. Vulnerability mapping of Indian Forests shows that Central Indian States of like MP and Chhattisgarh are most vulnerable from the effects of the climate change.
Health wise increasing urban atmospheric temperature accompanied by variations in day and night temperatures coupled with increase in air pollution have led to rise in cases of allergies and respiratory infections in the state. Quoting TOI article November 12, 2011 it states that more pulmonary disorders are being recorded with rise in percentage of particulate matter in the environment due to change in weather.
Dists vulnerable to climate change
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